Tricky Away Ties Abound in Euro Draw
Destination: Poland-Ukraine 2012
The reaction to Ireland’s qualification group for the European Championships in 2012 has been one of relief, with the draw widely regarded as being considerably kinder than it might otherwise have been. Top seeds Russia, who fell short of World Cup qualification after a shock playoff defeat to Slovenia, are no Spain or Italy, and inspirational manager Guus Hiddink’s decision not to renew his contract will have come as a major boost to Giovanni Trapattoni. Slovakia, who will compete in their first World Cup this summer, are a competitive and technically proficient outfit who have improved hugely since Ireland last met them in 2007. Nonetheless, considering that Pot 2 also included Serbia, Greece and Switzerland, the Slovaks are fairly regarded as the lesser of all evils. FYR Macedonia, Armenia and Andorra, ranked 64th, 103rd and 202nd in the world respectively, have been treated, rather dismissively, as guaranteed six-pointers. However, our head-to-head record against these sides should temper any wild flights of optimism.
Russia
The relief at having drawn Russia as top seed was, you suspect, more about having avoided the likes of Spain and Germany rather than any r
eal confidence that we might actually finish ahead of Messrs Arshavin and co. Once the dust has settled, our record against the Russians ought to give us pause for thought. The teams last met at Lansdowne Road in 2003, with a frustrating 1-1 draw denying Ireland the win they needed to stay in the reckoning for top spot. The previous September in Moscow had proven a grim affair, with calamitous defending resulting in a 4-2 defeat for the Irish and hastening Mick McCarthy’s resignation some weeks later. Friendlies between the two nations have been mixed over the years, with Ireland’s last win against Russian opposition coming in a World Cup warm-up match in 2002, but with a host of technically-gifted Premiership stars such as Yuri Zhirkov (Chelsea), Andrey Arshavin (Arsenal) and Roman Pavluychenko (Tottenham Hotspur) – not to mention the outstanding goalkeeper Igor Afinkeev of CSKA Moscow – they will rightly command the favourites tag in Group B.
Slovakia
The last encounter between the Slovaks and Ireland came in the Euro 2008 qualifiers, when a bitterly disappointing 2-2 draw in Bratislava, with a last minute equaliser from Marek Cech effectively ending Ireland’s slim hopes of qualification.
However, having won 1-0 at Croke Park the previous March, Ireland might allow themselves a certain quiet confidence at tackling the Slovak threat. Indeed, having garnered four points from the Slovaks under the chaotic reign of Steve Staunton while missing key players such as Damien Duff and Robbie Keane, Irish fans can be reasonably hopeful that Giovanni Trapattoni’s well-organised side can at least match that return. Nonetheless, although not an established power, Slovakia are not to be underestimated, with Liverpool’s Martin Skertl, captain Marek Hamsik of Napoli and Manchester City’s hugely promising winger Vladimir Weiss (whose father manages the national side) some of the more familiar names among a solid squad. Irish eyes will follow the Slovaks’ World Cup adventure with particular interest this summer- and having been matched in a group with Italy, Paraguay and New Zealand, there is every chance Vladimir Weiss’s men might progress to the knockout stages. Indeed, it is to be hoped that Slovakia do embark on such a run so as to increase the likelihood of suffering the infamous ‘World Cup hangover’ from which Ireland will hope to profit.
FYR Macedonia
Before there was Cyprus, there was Macedonia. For so long the bete noir of Irish football and the rock on which our qualification attempts floundered, only those of poor memory could have welcomed this draw with any real confidence.
The 3-2 defeat and 1-1 draw in Skopje a decade ago remain daubed indelibly on the psyche of Irish football, and with recent wins over the likes of Scotland and Croatia – not to mention an away draw against England – the Balkan republic has clearly lost nothing of its ability to shock traditionally stronger opposition. Nonetheless, Ireland can be buoyed by the fact that they remain a side who veer chaotically between the sublime and the ridiculous: in 2004, after a fantastic 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, Macedonia crashed to a 1-0 defeat against tiny Andorra, while last year’s victory over Scotland was followed by defeat against Iceland. The most obvious threat to Trapattoni’s men will be Inter Milan’s Goran Pandev, captain of the side and all-time top scorer with 23 goals, although Ireland will also be keen to avoid playing in Macedonia during autumn when temperatures can reach the mid-30s. Having been scorched in Skopje twice already, however, Ireland are unlikely to underestimate the challenge posed by the Macedonians this time. If they can avoid injuries – and the Balkan sun – Ireland will hope to catch Mirsad Jonuz’s men on another of their off-days and finally put the Macedonian bogeyman to bed.
Armenia
Having never played Ireland before, Armenia are something of an unknown quantity to followers of the senior side. Underage afficianados, however, are painfully familiar with what this technically proficient and proud side can do: Ireland’s under 21 side recently lost 2-1 in Dublin to their slick Armenian counterparts, who had also disposed of the Boys in Green by a humiliating scoreline of 4-1 in Yerevan. 
While never finishing above the bottom three of any group in their 15-year existence, Armenia’s progress in recent years has been punctuated by a series of upsets against bigger sides. Victory over Belgium and Poland, as well as creditable score draws against the likes of Portugal, Serbia and Greece, show a side that is beginning to grow into itself. However, dogged by defensive frailties and a poor record away from home, the record suggests that Armenia have quite some way to go before they can realistically mount a sustained challenge against higher-ranked sides. They will look to players with European and Champions League experience such as Artavazd Karamyan (Steaua Bucharest), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Metalurg Donetsk) and under-21 starlet Hovhannes Goharyan (BATE Borisov) to inspire the side’s attempts to defy the odds.
Andorra
Probably the only one of Ireland’s group opponents to offer a genuinely attractive away trip, with the mountainous nation a haven for ski-lovers and winter sports addicts: and that’s about as much as you can say in the Andorrans’ favour. Ranked just above San Marino and several places below the likes of Guam, Macau and Guinea-Bissau in the FIFA seedings, anything other than a convincing couple of Irish victories against the tiny country would be a disaster of Pyrénéean proportions. 
This being said, however, Ireland should know better than to consider their Andorran encounter as a formality: the last time the sides met at Lansdowne Road in 2001, Ireland were rocked on their heels when Ildefons Lima gave Andorra the lead. For two brief but surreal minutes, the scoreline read: Ireland 0 Andorra 1. Order was quickly restored as Ireland roused themselves to a 3-1 win, but the memory of that hiccup should keep Ireland honest in the forthcoming ties: after all, it’s not as if our narrow escape to victory in San Marino is ancient history either. Expect a convincing win in Dublin, but a labour-intensive victory by a couple of goals at the Communal d’Andorra la Vella as the Pyrénéeans put eleven men behind the ball.
Summary
This group is certainly doable from an Irish perspective, but not to the cake-walk extent being portrayed in certain corners of the sports media. While Ireland’s performances against Russia will be the most obvious pointers as to where the group will be won and lost, it is perhaps the double-headers against Slovakia and Macedonia that will present the fiercest battles. Giovanni Trapattoni’s record on the road in the last campaign was rock solid and functional – and with extremely tricky away ties in inhospitable outposts such as Yeravan, Skopje and Moscow, he will need to ensure his side maintain every ounce of the concentration and mental cool that saw them edge out Bulgaria last time around. Keep the head – and hopefully the attacking ambition shown in Paris last November – and top spot might just be within our reach. However, there is unfortunately little in our history to vindicate any attitude that such an outcome is fait accompli: playoffs it may have to be once more.
Native Mind 